Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-19 3.584522 3.908196 4.282676 4.757812 5.360602 6.125602 7.220464
2025-01-26 3.230786 3.650954 4.179865 4.928602 6.033309 7.770924 11.293553
2025-02-02 3.063987 3.553174 4.209421 5.226904 6.960359 10.473500 24.050791
2025-02-09 2.874287 3.383993 4.094526 5.263055 7.472935 13.105474 117.958593
2025-02-16 2.736374 3.261715 4.017914 5.327752 8.067803 17.301362 NaN
2025-02-23 2.561042 3.066836 3.803780 5.106426 7.948641 18.988159 NaN
2025-03-02 2.465949 2.976769 3.737086 5.131209 8.427722 26.407398 NaN
2025-03-09 2.376411 2.886318 3.657885 5.114531 8.803229 39.327301 NaN
2025-03-16 2.275833 2.772075 3.528806 4.977585 8.775029 51.245583 NaN
2025-03-23 2.236414 2.745682 3.539258 5.120682 9.725219 NaN NaN
2025-03-30 2.143062 2.631962 3.394507 4.916768 9.370603 NaN NaN
2025-04-06 2.051839 2.517653 3.242386 4.682393 8.841558 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 1.984296 2.439304 3.150856 4.578425 8.813626 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 1.963905 2.432013 3.179132 4.738338 9.935908 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 1.959751 2.449123 3.250557 5.012294 12.014122 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 1.922764 2.412182 3.222561 5.045389 12.958005 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 1.891700 2.382950 3.206005 5.104511 14.265792 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 1.831432 2.304316 3.093914 4.901972 13.352939 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 1.801620 2.273699 3.068897 4.924692 14.367615 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 1.769339 2.237706 3.031532 4.909403 15.107966 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 1.726538 2.183128 2.956532 4.783682 14.642316 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 1.714618 2.178311 2.974657 4.915043 17.262083 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 1.669308 2.117237 2.882782 4.727747 15.765061 NaN NaN